Growing Pains: America and the Burden of Exceptionalism

As a businessman and immigrant who chose America as my home and professional foundation, my relationship with American exceptionalism runs especially deep. It is more than a theory to me, it is the foundation upon which I’ve built my career, my family’s future, and the businesses that support our communities. America offered me opportunities unparalleled elsewhere, and that belief continues to fuel my optimism for our nation’s enduring role as a global leader, even as today’s geopolitical realities force us to confront uncomfortable questions about that future.

American exceptionalism is often discussed in the language of economics and geopolitics. But I’ve found a more intuitive way to understand it: the relationship between a parent and a child. One that must mature to remain healthy.

For much of the modern era, the United States has been viewed by the world as the ultimate safe haven—a reliable, stabilizing force in times of uncertainty. Global markets instinctively turned to America for security: investing in Treasury bonds, purchasing American defense equipment, and reinforcing the strength of the dollar. This trust allowed the U.S. to print money with relative freedom, manage its debt without penalty, and sustain prosperity without compromising its global standing.

The Waning Illusion of American Invincibility

Just as children gradually come to understand that their parents are not infallible, the world is beginning to recognize the limitations of American dominance. Ideally, this awareness would emerge gradually, allowing time for adjustment and recalibration. In recent months, however, that shift has felt abrupt, exposing the U.S. to a level of scrutiny it has long avoided. Once that sense of unquestioned credibility is disrupted, it becomes difficult to restore.

Economist Ruchir Sharma and author of The Rise and Fall of Nations and What Went Wrong with Capitalism recently argued that the “overdue rebalancing of global markets has just begun, and is likely to be playing out for a long time.”

Recent developments make this shift unmistakable. America’s national debt is projected to surpass $40 trillion, driven in part by sweeping fiscal policies informally known as “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill.” Credit rating agencies have responded with downgrades. Meanwhile, the dollar’s once-unquestioned role as the world’s reserve currency is eroding. And unsurprisingly, the price of gold is soaring, with intensified interest coming from central banks and individual investors alike. Today’s rising interest rates now reflect global markets’ growing concern over U.S. debt sustainability.

We also see this redefinition taking shape in various corners of policy and trade. President Trump’s erratic approach to tariffs, which Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong coined the TACO doctrine (Trump Always Chickens Out), captures a growing unpredictability in American policy. And it is likely to embolden other nations to pursue their own trade agreements without Washington’s involvement. The recent “Anywhere But USA” (ABUSA) trading strategies adopted by hedge funds and intrepid investors have brought this trend into sharper focus: the gravitational pull of the U.S. is weakening.

Flying the Nest

However, these are not signs of imminent collapse, as many sensationalist headlines might suggest. But they do mark a turning point. The world is beginning to treat America not as the exception, but as a peer in a more balanced global order. This evolving equilibrium empowers other nations to chart their own economic and diplomatic courses without defaulting to U.S. leadership and stewardship. The transition from exceptionalism to economic normalcy may be subtle, but it is significant.

Take NATO, for example, which has historically relied on U.S. defense spending. As American commitments have become less consistent, many allies have responded by strengthening their own capabilities. Germany, for instance, has made significant increases to its defense budget, fostering greater economic and strategic autonomy within Europe. This shift is not a rejection of the alliance, but a natural progression. The “children” are growing more independent, and the “parent” is no longer required in the same role.

Some interpret this as a signal of American decline. They point to rising debt, downgraded credit, and the softening dollar. These concerns are valid, but they don’t tell the full story. Yes, the markets are demanding higher yields. Yes, faith is being tested. But beneath the surface, America’s economic infrastructure remains strong, its innovative capacity unmatched. The U.S. continues to serve as a cornerstone of global stability—still essential, even if no longer infallible.

If Not America, Then Who?

If America were to meaningfully step back, who would take its place?

Within Europe, Germany is an economic powerhouse but struggles with domestic political fragmentation. Russia, isolated by global sanctions and deep mistrust, lacks the credibility to lead. China has grown rapidly and can handle money better than most, but as a communist government it faces transparency and trust concerns. Japan maintains influence but is still hampered by long-term deflationary cycles and an aging demographic. Australia and New Zealand are respected but lack scale and global centrality.

India emerges as the most promising contender. Its democratic structure, economic dynamism, and demographic advantage make it a rising force, and it is soon to become the world’s third-largest economy. But India’s democratic institutions are a mere 75 years young, its infrastructure still evolving, and its political continuity remains uncertain. Its path to global leadership is promising, but not yet fully formed.

So, for all the shifts underway, America remains uniquely positioned. Temporary disruptions don’t dismantle foundational strength. Innovation, democratic stability, and a deeply rooted entrepreneurial culture continue to define the U.S. economy. The current challenges are real, but they resemble family tensions: uncomfortable, yet navigable.

In the Meantime

The world still seeks steady leadership, and no alternative has yet emerged with the credibility, capacity, and cohesion to take America’s place. Despite moments of retreat and recalibration, the U.S. remains indispensable. Just as a family thrives under wise, steady guidance, global economies still look to America, even if the relationship is maturing.

Could another nation eventually lead? Perhaps. But if the U.S. were to step back dramatically, the global transition to a new leader would take decades, and much can happen in the interim.

As for me, I remain focused on where I know my dollars will work hardest: building American homes, shopping centers, gas stations, and hotels; running medical clinics, dental offices, and coffee shops; and funding the small businesses that form the backbone of Main Street. My confidence in America is not blind, it is earned. And while the illusion of American invincibility may be gone, its exceptionalism remains.

At least for now.